Lottery Tickets

Project ID: 
3000000025
SubArea: 
Level: 
Question: 

Task: From a pool of $20$ lottery tickets labeled with different numbers from $1$ to $20$, we will draw $2$ tickets simultaneously. What is the probability that both drawn tickets will have prime numbers?

Thomas calculated:

(1) In the pool, there are a total of $8$ tickets labeled with prime numbers.

(2) The probability that the first drawn ticket will have a prime number is $\frac{8}{20}$.

(3) If the first drawn ticket is labeled with a prime number, then the probability that the second drawn ticket will also have a prime number is $\frac{8}{20}$.

(4) Therefore, the probability that both drawn tickets will have prime numbers is $\frac{8}{20}\cdot\frac{8}{20} = 0.16$.

Thomas's solution is incorrect. Determine where he made a mistake in his reasoning.

Answer 1: 

The mistake is in step (1). In the interval $\left[1; 20\right]$, there are only $7$ prime numbers. The probability that both drawn tickets will have prime numbers is $\frac{7}{20}\cdot\frac{7}{20}\approx 0.1225$.

Answer 2: 

The mistake is in step (3). If the first drawn ticket is labeled with a prime number, then the probability that the second drawn ticket will also have a prime number is $\frac{7}{19}$. The resulting probability is $\frac{8}{20}\cdot\frac{7}{19} \approx 0.1474$.

Answer 3: 

The mistake is in step (4). The probability that both drawn tickets will have prime numbers is $\frac{8}{20} + \frac{8}{20} = 0.8$.

Answer 4: 

The mistake is in step (4). The probability that both drawn tickets will have prime numbers is $1 - \left(\frac{8}{20} \cdot \frac{8}{20}\right) = 0.84$.

Fixed Answer: 
All Fixed
Correct Answer: 
Answer 2